We went close to landing four places from five bets at the Curragh on Sunday but in the end, we had to make do with three. One of those places
came via Cercene in the Irish 1000 Guineas and while I was going to hold off on
tipping her up for this race until her future plans become more concrete, only
a couple of firms are still offering 100/1 so at the odds, it has to be worth
the risk.
In my opinion, Cercene’s run in the Guineas was far, far better
than it looked. Yes, she got the place in third but when tipping her for the
race, I was banking on there being a strong early gallop. Instead, we got
the opposite.
David Egan was allowed to sit at the front and dictate and
he knew it was in his interests to stack them up behind and turn the race into a
sprint in the last couple of furlongs. His plan almost worked to perfection but
Lake Victoria had the necessary natural speed to reel in California Dreamer in the
closing stages to land the spoils.
Cercene raced keenly just off the pace and did exceptionally
well to finish best of the rest in third given how the race unfolded. I think
she is much more likely to get a proper pace to aim at Ascot and I don’t
believe we’ll see how good she actually is until she gets a race run to suit. A
bit like Goliath last year.
100/1 is an insult of a price and if they do go
lickety split early, she is more than capable of closing the 4l gap to Lake Victoria. At the prices, Cercene has to be worth chancing e/w,
hopefully she takes her chance and gives us a good run for our money.
2025 Coronation Stakes Ante-Post Tip: Cercene e/w @ 100/1
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